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03/05/2010 - Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jon Jaques scored 20 points, going 6-of-8 from beyond the arc, and Cornell hit 20 shots from beyond the arc and clinched the Ivy League crown with a 95-76 victory over Brown.
Louis Dale, Ryan Wittman and Chris Wroblewski each hit four three-pointers with the trio scoring 18, 16 and 14 points, respectively, for the Big Red (26-4, 12-1 Ivy League), who sewed up their third consecutive berth in the NCAA Tournament.
Cornell tied an Ivy League record and set a school mark with the 20 made three-pointers, accomplishing the feat on just 30 attempts.
Jeff Foote also scored 14 for Cornell, which won its sixth in a row overall and beat the Bears for the eighth straight time.
This is Cornell's fourth Ivy League crown and fifth trip to the NCAA Tournament. Last year, the Big Red gained a No. 14 seed in the West Region and lost in the first round to Missouri.
Peter Sullivan had 23 points for the Bears (11-19, 5-8), who were swept in the season series by Cornell, also losing 65-54 on Feb. 6. Garrett Leffelman added 16 points in defeat.
It was a great start for Cornell, as Jaques nailed a pair of three-pointers and Wroblewski connected from long distance for a 9-0 lead for the visitors.
Brown battled back and grabbed a 25-24 edge on a three-pointer by Sullivan midway through the half, but Wroblewski responded with a three-ball.
Cornell managed to hold onto a 51-47 edge at the break and pulled away with a sizeable flurry early in the second half. A layup from Leffelman had Brown within 56-51, but Cornell responded with the next nine points, culminated by Dale's jumper with 16:15 remaining.
The Big Red continued to pull away, building the cushion to 20 at 81-61 on a Dale three-pointer inside nine minutes to go.
Cornell shot 57.4 percent from the field.
<< Horizon League Tournament Recaps
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eli Holman scored 16 points and grabbed 11
rebounds as the seventh-seeded Detroit Titans beat the third-seeded Green
Bay Phoenix, 62-53, in the second round of the Horizon League Tournament.
Xavier K
<< Pistons' Stuckey taken off on stretcher
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Detroit Pistons guard Rodney Stuckey was
taken from the court at Quicken Loans Arena on a stretcher after possibly
suffering a seizure during Friday night's game against the Cavaliers.
The incident
<< Ohio State fends off Illinois in Big Ten quarters
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jantel Lavender poured in 19 points and
pulled down six rebounds, as 10th-ranked Ohio State held off Illinois, 66-55,
in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament.
Samantha Prahalis added 13 points
<< Boston College upsets No. 8 FSU in ACC tourney
Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stefanie Murphy posted 14 points to lead all
scorers, and Boston College moved on to the semis of the ACC Tournament with a
67-60 upset over No. 8 Florida State.
Jasmine Gill added 13 points, while Carolyn
Bogut boosts Bucks over Wizards >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrew Bogut had 19 and 10 rebounds to pace
the Milwaukee Bucks past the Washington Wizards, 102-74, at the Verizon
Center.
Carlos Delfino also had 19 and six rebounds, while John Salmons added 17, f
Bobcats hand cold-shooting Lakers second straight loss >>
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stephen Jackson scored 21 points, and the
hot-shooting Bobcats trounced the Lakers, 98-83, dealing Los Angeles its
second straight defeat.
Gerald Wallace added 17 points and 10 rebounds for the Bo
Helm scores twice in Detroit's win over Nashville >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darren Helm scored a pair of goals, as the
Detroit Red Wings handled the Nashville Predators, 5-2, in a battle between
Central Division foes at Joe Louis Arena.
Pavel Datsyuk had a goal and an assist
Connolly's OT tally pushes Sabres past Flyers >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Connolly scored 2:31 into overtime to lift
the Buffalo Sabres to a 3-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers at HSBC Arena.
In the extra session, Philadelphia goaltender Michael Leighton stopped Toni
Lydman'
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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