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07/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We are just past the halfway point of the Major League Baseball season and the Detroit Tigers are right where they want to be; atop the American League Central standings.
The Tigers have gotten off to a hot start in July, having won five of six this month following their three-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles this week. Most importantly, they've been getting contributions from top to bottom.
Wednesday night against Baltimore, Tigers' starter Max Scherzer pitched seven innings of one-run ball, scattering six hits while striking out six. It was his fourth consecutive victory, marking a career-high. Indeed, Scherzer has enjoyed a sweet redemption in the Motor City. Back in mid-May, Scherzer was demoted to Triple-A Toledo with a 1-4 record and a 7.29 ERA.
He had even dubbed himself a "Five and Dive guy" for his frequent high pitch counts and subsequent inability to get past the fifth inning. But that is no more as Scherzer is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA since his return, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings.
Another guy who has been a major sparkplug to the team's recent surge is veteran Johnny Damon, who is hitting .304 in July and reached a milestone with his 2,500th career hit in the third inning of Wednesday's game. However, it was career hit No. 2,501 which will have a more lasting memory. Damon propelled the Tigers to a 7-5 win over the Orioles with a walk-off homer in the 11th inning.
"The 2,500 ball is going to go in my trophy case," he said after the game. "But 2,501 is definitely going to be the one I remember that helped this team win a crucial ballgame."
An even bigger catalyst has been Miguel Cabrera, who has his sights set on a Triple Crown. Entering Wednesday's game, Cabrera was leading the majors in batting average (.347), homers (21) and RBI (73). But later that night, Toronto's Jose Bautista surpassed him with his 22nd homer of the year, albeit an inside-the-parker. Cabrera has also hit safely in 16 straight games, which is one shy of his career high, set last season.
Next up for the Tigers is a weekend home series with the Minnesota Twins leading into the All-Star break. Minnesota was recently leapfrogged in the division standings by the Chicago White Sox, winners of five straight.
The Tigers have been able to take care of struggling teams. Wednesday's sweep of the Orioles wrapped up Detroit's streak of six straight home series against last-place teams. The Tigers compiled a 15-3 mark during that stretch.
ROYALS CLOSING FIRST HALF WITH A BANG
The Kansas City Royals (39-46) are sending a message that they intend to hang around in the AL Central race. They've won three straight and five of six so far in the month of July. Overall, they've won 10 of their last 13.
The only problem is, they haven't been able to gain any ground. The first- place Tigers (46-37) have won three straight and seven of 10, while the second-place White Sox (46-38) have won five in a row. As a result, the Royals' deficit in the division standings is still eight games, but they'll have a chance to close some ground this weekend as they head to Chicago for a three-game set with their division rival.
Usually by this time, most sports fans in Kansas City have shifted their attention away from the Royals and toward the start of Chiefs training camp. Earlier this week, the Royals swept the Mariners in Seattle for the first time in 15 years. But how does this hot streak affect the team's eye toward the future? Will manager Ned Yost continue to play veterans at the expense of younger guys who need the at-bats?
"Realistically, if you can get it down to somewhere between four and six games with two months to play, you've got a chance," general manager Dayton Moore told the Kansas City Star.
The real question is, if the Royals manage to achieve that type of deficit by the end of the month, will Moore suddenly become a buyer at the trade deadline and part with some coveted prospects for help now?
WHITE SOX SUFFER MAJOR BLOW
When White Sox starter Jake Peavy abruptly walked off the mound after feeling a strange sensation in the back of his pitching shoulder during the second inning of Tuesday night's game with the Angels, fans throughout Chicago's South Side collectively held their breath.
As it turns out, the injury suffered by Peavy appears to be quite serious, and likely, season ending. That will ultimately hinge on a second and third opinion for what has been diagnosed as a detached latissimus dorsi muscle. Obviously, that's a major blow for a team has won five in a row to move to within a half-game of first place in the AL Central.
Over his last six starts, Peavy had compiled a 1.67 ERA and was pitching like the ace he was brought to Chicago to be. Most surprisingly, he was dominating on the mound despite some arm budding arm problems. After complaining of a dead arm a few weeks ago, Peavy underwent an MRI, which revealed fluid build- up in his pitching elbow. Although his next start was pushed back a couple of days, Peavy did not go on the DL, a decision that was reached after extensive internal discussions. In his previous start leading up to Tuesday, he felt something grab in the back of his shoulder, which yielded some bruising in the area. Still, after receiving some treatment, Peavy pitched on.
"I don't think anyone is at fault here -- myself for wanting to be out there or the team for letting me be out there," Peavy said.
No word from general manager Kenny Williams on how the injury will alter his trade deadline plans. For now, Daniel Hudson figures to be called up from Triple-A Charlotte to replace Peavy in the rotation, although nothing has been decided. Hudson was pulled out of the Futures Game on Sunday, leading to speculation that he'd be the man to fill Peavy's shoes, for now.
TWINS TRYING TO STOP THE BLEEDING
Less than a week ago, the Minnesota Twins were a fist-place team in the American League Central. But as we've learned over the years, things can change very quickly in this division. Entering this weekend's final series before the All-Star break, the Twins (45-40) find themselves in third place, two games back of Detroit.
However, by the end of the weekend, it's possible they could be right back in the driver's seat. The Twins head to the Motor City to kick off a three-game set with the division-leading Tigers Friday. And Minnesota is hell-bent on heading into the break the same way they've spent much of the season's first half; atop the division.
The series opener presents a marquee pitching matchup between Minnesota's Francisco Liriano and Detroit's Justin Verlander. In his last outing, Liriano went seven innings and allowed one run on four hits, fanning 10 against the Rays last Saturday. He'll need to bring his A-game Friday for a Minnesota squad that is a bit banged up at the moment.
First baseman Justin Morneau was held out of Thursday's lineup after taking a knee to the head on Wednesday night. Also on Wednesday night, left fielder Delmon Young sprained his left wrist during an outfield collision with Denard Span, though Young was back in the lineup Thursday.
CARMONA ENJOYING REBOUND SEASON FOR TRIBE
When he burst onto the scene with a 19-8 record and a 3.06 ERA as a 24-year- old in 2007, Indians starter Fausto Carmona was dubbed the next big thing in Cleveland. But injuries derailed his 2008 season, and last year he pitched so poorly he was demoted to the rookie-level Arizona League to try and regain his form.
Consider the first half of this season as evidence that Carmona has, in fact, rediscovered his mojo. Through 17 starts this year, he has compiled a 3.69 ERA and has tossed two complete games. Next week in Anaheim, he will be Cleveland's lone representative in the 2010 All-Star game, which will be his first as a pro.
Carmona was a manager's selection by New York Yankees coach Joe Girardi, who will manage the American League All-Stars. However, Carmona was mild-mannered about the news, which was delivered on a day when he lost to the A's, 3-1 despite another quality start.
"He's 7-7 now," pitching coach Tim Belcher said. "That doesn't sound all that impressive. But after (Sunday), that's now four losses with a quality start, and he's had three no-decisions with quality starts. He could very easily have as many as 13 wins and, quite conservatively, could have 10 or 11."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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