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12/30/2011 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been a long time since the San Francisco 49ers played some meaningful football in the regular season's final week. Thanks to a great year under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, they'll be doing so later in January as well.
Having already captured their first division title and postseason trip in nine years, one would think the Niners would be antsy at getting postseason play underway. However, a victory over the St. Louis Rams this Sunday at the Edward Jones Dome would give San Francisco a first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs.
That's an opportunity the 49ers would love to jump on.
"Obviously, any time you'd love to lock up a bye, you'd take it I think," said quarterback Alex Smith, calling the possibility of a bye week a great opportunity.
Smith and the rest of the 49ers aren't worried about the risk of rust that comes with having a week off, but it does work in their favor that this regular-season finale means something. San Francisco can clinch the bye and the NFC's No. 2 seed with a win or a loss by the New Orleans Saints to the Carolina Panthers. Both games are slated for 1 p.m. (et) kickoffs.
San Francisco actually had a chance to lock up the bye last weekend after a 19-17 win over Seattle, but the Saints were able to knock off the Falcons the following day to keep pace.
Still, thanks to four field goals from David Akers, including the game-winning 39-yarder late in the fourth quarter, the 49ers moved to 12-3 after recording their second straight win. They are now looking for their first 13-win season since 1997 and haven't won six road games in a single campaign since 1996.
Smith was credited with his fifth come-from-behind win of the season, and four of those have now come on the road to match Joe Montana's club record set in 1989.
San Francisco's current quarterback and its star-studded defense didn't have much trouble when they hosted St. Louis back on Dec. 4, cruising to a 26-0 victory behind four Akers field goals and a pair of 50-yard-plus touchdown passes by Smith.
Despite that blowout win, San Francisco will still play it cautious with the 2-13 Rams.
"Yeah, no question, nothing to lose," said Smith of the Rams' mindset. "Nothing to lose from both coaches and players alike. So, potentially every trick in the book will get thrown at you, offense and defense, special teams. I'm sure they're going to throw everything at us."
Embattled Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo, who has begun to hear rumors of his possible departure at season's end, also expects the Niners to give his club its all given what is on the line.
"Only four teams get [a bye], right? Two in each [conference]," said Spagnuolo. "I do think it makes a big difference. Guys get healthy. I'm sure you're going to talk to Jim [Harbaugh], but I'm sure he's telling you that they're going after it."
The Rams will simply be going after some points after getting shut out last weekend in a 27-0 loss to a Pittsburgh club that was without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger due to a high ankle sprain.
St. Louis, though, was without its starting signal-caller in Sam Bradford for a second straight week and the fifth time in 2011 due to a high ankle sprain of his own. Kellen Clemens got a second straight start, but passed for just 91 yards.
It marked the second six-game slide for the Rams this season and dropped them to 10-37 overall under Spagnuolo.
Bradford would like to get on the field for this game, but was unable to practice early in the week and has yet to see the progress in the ankle that he needs.
"This week was really the first time that we had done much, and to be honest it didn't feel great in the little that we did do," Bradford said of his ankle. "So as far as that, until it gets better, until we do some more I really can't tell you [if he'll play]."
SERIES HISTORY
The Rams have a slim 61-60-2 edge in their overall regular-season series with the 49ers, but San Francisco has taken six of the past seven meetings between the teams following its 26-0 home shutout of St. Louis in Week 13. The Niners swept their home-and-home set with the Rams in both 2008 and 2009, with St. Louis earning a split last season because of a 25-17 home triumph in Week 16 that triggered the dismissal of then-San Francisco head coach Mike Singletary immediately afterward. The 49ers had prevailed in three straight trips to the Edward Jones Dome prior to that loss.
The 49ers also bested the Rams in the lone playoff encounter between the clubs, a 30-3 verdict at Candlestick Park in the 1989 NFC Championship when the Rams where still based in Los Angeles.
Spagnuolo is 1-4 against San Francisco during his two-plus seasons at the helm, while Harbaugh won his only previous matchup with both St. Louis and Spagnuolo as an NFL head coach with last month's victory.
WHEN THE 49ERS HAVE THE BALL
Clock control and a solid ground game led by Frank Gore (1202 rushing yards, 8 TD) is the key to the Niners' offense, but the receivers could certainly benefit from an extra week off. Both Kyle Williams (20 receptions, 3 TD) and Ted Ginn Jr. (19 receptions) are questionable for this game due to a concussion and ankle sprain, respectively, while tight end Delanie Walker (19 receptions, 3 TD) is out after fracturing his jaw last week. That leaves wideouts Michael Crabtree (64 receptions, 2 TD) and Brett Swain as the only healthy options for Smith (2931 passing yards, 16 TD, 5 INT) along with tight end Vernon Davis (59 receptions, 6 TD). The Niners solved that problem last week by running for 178 yards, getting 83 and a score from Gore and another career-high 73 yards on 12 carries from rookie Kendall Hunter (397 rushing yards, 2 TD). Davis and Crabtree were targeted a combined 14 times by Smith and partnered up to make nine catches for 139 yards. That was the bulk of offense for Smith, who ended with just 179 yards passing but did not turn the ball over.
The Rams are a perfect team to run the football against, as they rank dead last against opposing ground games with 154.5 rushing yards allowed per contest. They gave up 144 rushing yards in the first meeting with the 49ers and saw the Steelers rack up 169 yards and three touchdowns on the ground this past weekend. That run-heavy strategy also took away the strength of the Rams, which is their pass rush. St. Louis is sixth in defending the pass (206.4 ypg) thanks to outstanding defensive ends James Hall (45 tackles, 5 sacks), Chris Long (34 tackles, 13 sacks) and rookie Robert Quinn (22 tackles, 5 sacks). Long, though, is still bothered by an ankle issue and cornerback Josh Gordy (40 tackles, 3 INT) has an abdominal injury. They'll need Gordy given that the Rams other starting corner, Justin King (58 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), won't play due to a shoulder problem that requires surgery. With the Steelers offering plenty of chances, linebacker James Laurinaitis (133 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT) had a game- high 13 tackles, while fellow linebacker Chris Chamberlain (74 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) had eight. Corner Rod Hood (16 tackles, 1 INT) notched seven stops, while Gordy had an interception and safety Quintin Mikell (84 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) made six tackles as the unit was held without a sack.
WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL
As much as St. Louis can struggle on defense, it has been even worse on the other side of the ball. The Rams' 11.1 points per game is ranked last in the NFL, while they are also 31 out of 32 teams with an average of 281.7 total yards per game. The lone bright spot in last week's shutout that featured just 232 yards of offense was running back Steven Jackson (1069 rushing yards, 41 receptions, 6 total TD) logging 103 yards to surpass 1,000 yards rushing for a club-record seventh straight season. Backup Cadillac Williams (344 rushing yards) added 42 to the Rams' 164-yard rushing total, while Clemens (320 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) struggled to complete just nine of his 24 pass attempts while getting sacked three times. Like Bradford (2164 passing yards, 6 TD, 6 INT) before him, Clemens looked a lot towards wide receiver Brandon Lloyd (64 receptions, 4 TD), who had three receptions for 29 yards on 12 targets against Pittsburgh. Only three other St. Louis players caught passes, with wideout Danario Alexander (23 receptions, 2 TD), rookie tight end Lance Kendricks (25 receptions) and Jackson garnering one each. Clemens will need more from the likes of wide receivers Brandon Gibson (35 receptions, 1 TD) and Dominique Curry in this game against a tough run defense.
Yes, the 49ers do rank first in the league in scoring (13.5 ppg) and run defense (75.1 ypg), but had both those averages eclipsed against a desperate Seahawks club last week. In fact, Seattle's Marshawn Lynch ran for 107 yards and a score to end a pair of streaks for the 49ers. It was the first time San Francisco gave up a rushing touchdown this season and marked the first time an enemy back ran for over 100 yards in team's past 36 contests. Perhaps playing without star linebacker Patrick Willis (93 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) for a third straight game due to a hamstring injury finally caught up to the Niners. Larry Grant (38 tackles, 2 sacks) started in Willis' place again and came up with 11 tackles and a forced fumble which safety Donte Whitner (60 tackles, 2 INT) recovered, while fellow inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman (133 tackles, 1 sack) had a game-high 12 stops to go with a sack. Defensive end Ray McDonald (38 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and rookie linebacker Aldon Smith (35 tackles, 14 sacks) also came up with sacks, with Smith extending his club's single-season rookie record. The 2011 first-round pick is one sack shy of setting the NFL rookie sack record as well. Cornerback Carlos Rogers (39 tackles, 6 INT) is key to the 49ers' secondary, but is questionable with a knee ailment. He is tied with safety Dashon Goldson (64 tackles, 6 INT) for the club lead in interceptions.
KEYS TO THE GAME
The 49ers lead the NFL with a plus-26 turnover ratio, having logged 36 takeaways to 10 turnovers this season. With the Rams likely to start Clemens again this weekend, San Francisco's playmaking linebackers and ball-hawking secondary could increase that number this weekend.
Alex Smith has been steady all season and doesn't turn the ball over. That is because he knows he doesn't have to force things thanks to Akers, who has hit an NFL-record 42 field goals this season. Akers also has a career-high 156 points on the year, making him the first player in the league to go over the 150 mark since LaDainian Tomlinson had 186 in 2006.
The Rams have nothing to lose, so they should be nice and relaxed. There is also some thought that they are playing for the job of Spagnuolo, meaning the entire roster should be giving 100 percent in this otherwise meaningless game. San Francisco knows a team with nothing to lose is a dangerous one, so St. Louis will need to capitalize on that mental edge.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Many are fairly wondering just how much effort the 49ers will put into this game with an eye on a bigger prize down the road. After all, San Francisco can still get a bye with a loss. However, the Niners have showed a blue-collar attitude all season long, and it would be shocking if Harbaugh let his players take their feet off the gas, especially early on. That's bad news for a banged- up and overmatched Rams team that took a big step back this year and could see some big changes after this contest.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: 49ers 23, Rams 6
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While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
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